The Bank of England has warned that the UK will fall into a recession this year, with the economy forecast to keep shrinking until the end of 2023 and while the slump is not predicted to be as harsh as the one back in 2008, it could last just as long. Now, what on earth does this have to do with fashion? As it turns out, a lot. In fact, our fashion trends in the UK for the next couple of years could all be resting on this imminent recession. Of course, consumers will begin to spend less as we take greater care of our pennies, but we can also predict the silhouette of clothing that will become popular. This is known as the hemline index, so let’s dive into it.

In the simplest of terms, the hemline index is the theory that skirt lengths rise or fall alongside stock prices, meaning they get longer in periods of economic hardship and shorter in good economic times. First developed in the 1920s, there are plenty of examples through the years that suggest the hemline index is a trustworthy indicator and predictor of current and future fashion trends.

Famously, in the 1920s hemlines grew shorter as fashions became more playful and daring, however, the 1929 Wall Street Crash brought an end to this trend. Hemlines rose slightly during the 1930s as the west grew out of the Great Depression, only to be plunged into the horrors of World War Two when, of course, hemlines grew longer once more, sitting at knee length. The US recession of 1949, while not as bad as had been expected, may have been foreshadowed by the Dior New Look of 1947 which favoured voluminous skirts hitting below the knee. Subsequently, as the economy very slowly righted itself, people found themselves with more to spend on clothes, so hemlines became shorter. By the 1960s we of course welcomed the mini skirt! Shorter styles stayed at the height of youthful style until the double dip recession of the early 1980s which led to power suits with below-knee skirts. There are many smaller examples too, but you get the idea.

‘The hemline and the economy: is there any match?’ is a paper written by Marjolein van Baardwijk and Philip Hans Franses, where they analysed monthly hemline data from 1921 to 2009 to see whether the theory really holds any truth. They discovered that the economic cycle leads hemline lengths by around three years, meaning that our financial markets do have the ability to predict what we see on the runway and in stores. They predicted that ankle length styles would have a boom in 2011 and 2012. They were correct - boho maxi skirts and dresses did have a mini resurgence. This was three years or so after the 2008 recession. Of course, this theory is not airtight, and there have been many inconsistencies. Why? Because fashion is ever-changing and dependent on the artistic visions of those creating at the top. During the 1950s, longer and wider skirts were seen as symbols of wealth and prosperity. Perhaps, these two things can coexist.

From Left to Right: The Row Spring 2023, Self-Portrait Fall 2022, Max Mara Resort 2023

We are now over two years on from the start of the coronavirus pandemic and heading into a full-blown recession, which means that, by the hemline index, we should be starting to see longer hemlines soon. One could argue that this has already started, with midi skirts a la the 90s and Parisian chic dominating social media platforms. Self-Portrait, Patou, Paco Rabanne, The Row, Max Mara and many others have all featured a longer skirt in their most recent ready-to-wear collections - meaning it is only a matter of time before these styles trickle down into the high street, if they haven’t already!

With no clear idea of how long we will be plunged into economic darkness, it is hard to know how long these longer styles will be with us, but what is clear is that we will favour mini once again…before inevitably reverting back to long…then short, then long and so the cycle continues.